One common mistake that I see time and time again at local drafts is people being too committed to their colours too early on, sometimes as quickly as the 3rd pick. It goes something like this:

 Pick 1: good card in colour X

 Pick 2: good card in colour X

 Pick 3: mediocre card in colour X

 Rest of draft: just taking any playable card in this colour

Now this will work some percentage of the time because you just happen to be in the colours that you are naturally getting passed and get a good deck, however a lot of the time ,especially against better players, this will cost you dearly.

Why this is bad

Most packs have 3 to 5 highly pick-able cards in them and it’s easily possible for these to be in the same colours. This means that it is completely possible for the person to your right (the player passing to you) to have taken an even better card in colour X than the one in front of you and then the person to your left to take another card in that colour. The opportunity cost of switching into a more open colour and getting a great deck instead of fighting over the same colour as the people to your right and ending up with a mediocre one is real! Remember even if you open a good rare it’s not worth sticking to that colour if it’s getting savagely cut! Just trust that you will get better cards overall from switching.

Why the person to the right of you being in the same colours is bad

Simply put they will get the first pick of all the cards in your colour for pack 1 and 3 meaning you will get the mediocre seconds, and possibly not even have enough playable cards to cobble together a competitive deck. Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can take advantage of pack 2, this rarely works and your deck will not be as good as it would have been if you had identified and moved in on the correct colours for your seat.

How do I know a colour is open?

This is not always easy to tell, however by paying attention to the cards you see it should be possible to work out. The best way to know is by looking at the power level of the cards but also the number of cards in that colour in each pack. If its pick 5 onwards and there are multiple good cards in a single  colour and 1 is very highly pickable, this colour is almost definitely open. It’s also possible that if a 1st pickable card is passed to you pack 4 then this colour is open. You will need to remember the previous packs as well for a full idea of how open the colours are, as some packs just contain no cards in a certain colour and this could be a blip rather than a sign that the colour is getting cut off.

If you’re really stuck then a very good way to tell is by looking at the cards you get passed toward the end of pack 1. If there are 5 or 6 cards left and one of them is very playable in your colours then you know you are doing something right. The less cards in the pack the more telling this becomes.

How do I know if my colour is getting cut?

If it gets to 6th or 7th picks in and there is only one playable card in your colour and its average at best there’s a high chance you are getting cut. As i said above this can simply be a blip, but if this continues for several packs then it’s time to switch colours. If a colour dries up earlier than this it is likely that somebody to your right is heavily committed to that colour.

When is too late to switch colours?

Personally I don’t like switching colours after the first few picks of the second pack and ideally you should be in your colours before then. This is not a hard and fast rule, sometimes in the 3rd pack you open a rare or mythic so powerful that it just wins the game 90% of the time its cast, in this case it can be right to ignore the colours that are getting cut to my right and just pick up the rare and try to splash it or possibly change colours.

Picks that give you options.

Every block is different, and has different standards of what an open pick is. For some sets it’s a good artifact creature such as Eldritch Moon’s Geist-Fueled Scarecrow others have many multi-colour or hybrid spells and non-basic lands or perhaps mana creatures to keep you open. Even just choosing a single cost spell that is easily splashable over a more colour intensive one can help to keep you open. The more open you stay the easier it is to use the information you are receiving in the boosters passed from the right, or to take a strong rare in a different colour opened in the second booster.

Well that’s pretty much it so as usual have fun, keep at it and if your local to the southwest hopefully see you for some Shadows over Innistrad // Eldritch Moon draft!