Snop Keep – Keep or Mulligan?

Hi again everyone, let me introduce you to Snop Keep, a semi-regular article that will focus on mulligan decisions. This time around we will focus on some mulligan decisions in constructed decks across modern and standard. I’ll provide some context to the hand and the provide my suggestion and reasoning as to whether I would keep or mulligan. Make sure to let me know in the comments what your decisions were, and if you disagreed with me on a decision I would love to hear why!

Hand 1: Modern – Grixis Death’s Shadow.

You are on the play against an unknown opponent.

Mulligan.

Your deck needs to draw a good balance of lands, interaction and threat in order to carry out its game plan effectively. I feel that this hand is too heavy on land and little on interaction. A turn 1 Serum Visions can only go so far and modern isn’t the kindest format, meaning you can’t really wait around to draw more interaction. The earliest your Gurmag Angler would come down is around turn 3, which isn’t that bad but apart from that you hand doesn’t really hold up. There are plenty of stronger hands at 6.

Hand 2: Standard – Temur Energy

You are on the draw post-board in a mirror. You won game 1 and saw your opponent sideboard around 5 or 6 cards.

Keep.

This hand is okay, you have almost perfect mana and, on the draw, can potentially draw into one of your better 3/4 mana threats without ending up too far behind. Standard is a little slower than Modern and slightly more forgiving, but you still would not rather go down to 5 and this is a fine keep. Baral’s Expertise is one of the better spells in the mirror and can essentially reset the board on turn 5 and if you draw a threat can even put you ahead. You can even cycle the Sheltered Thicket if you end up drawing 2 lands in the next few turns.

Hand 3: Standard – Mardu Vehicles.

You are on the draw against the mirror and you saw your opponent sideboard about 7 or 8 cards.

Keep.

Again, I think this is a close one. You have a scry and 2 draw steps to find some lands while you have some of the better threats in your hand. If you manage to play a Nahiri or Gideon on 4 with a Heart of Kiran in play you can begin to apply some pressure well. Usually post board games in the mirror end up being quite a grind, where these strong planeswalkers will be very useful. From the number of cards your opponent side-boarded, it seems like they are moving to a slower game plan to, so you can expect not to be run over by Toolcraft Exemplar early on.

Hand 4: Modern – Dredge

You are on the draw, post sideboard against a white deck that presumably has Rest in Peace. They sideboarded about 4 cards. You opponent quickly kept their hand of 7 cards.

Keep.

You are missing a dredger and a green source, but you have Faithless Looting and Cathartic Reunion, your best two enablers. You also have the Nature’s Claim in order to destroy a pesky Rest in Peace. Your first few turns will prove vital, as you will need to use looting to filter your draws without committing too much to the graveyard that can be exiled. A good dredge player can navigate this hand in order to minimise the damage of a Rest in Peace and a lucky dredge player can get a Stinkweed Imp into their hand early once the enchantment has been dealt with.

Hand 5: Standard – Mono-Black Zombies.

Game 1 against an unknown opponent, you are on the draw. Your opponent has mulliganed.

Keep.

Cryptbreaker is probably the best card in your deck and you have 2 in your hand! Although it is always risky to keep a one land hand, I feel that the payoff of having such a good start if you do draw land means it is worth it. The chances of drawing a land in your first draw step is about 43% and if you manage to get lucky and draw said land, you can even begin with Dread Wanderer on turn 1 and 2 Cryptbreakers on turn 2, allowing you to immediately start drawing cards. You only really need to draw one land in 2 draw steps for this hand to be good, which is roughly 87%. I would certainly take the risk for such a good hand, almost 9/10 times it pays off.

I hope you have enjoyed the first edition of Snop Keep! Please let me know in the comments whether you agreed with my decisions or if you think I am crazy, I would love to hear your views either way. I would also love any suggestions for decks to include in future editions.

By Geroge Worsnop
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