Welcome to Hit or Miss, my new series on Standard sets that analyses which cards became surprise staples, and which litter the trade binders of players everywhere. Today, we’re looking at Ixalan.

In case you’d missed it, Ixalan is a tribal set. It features scourges of the high seas like Hostage Taker sharing the waters with Kopala, Warden of Waves and her school of fishmen. Ripjaw Raptors hunt those unfortunate enough to set foot on dry land, and when night falls, one should beware the bloodsucking Mavrin Fein, Dusk Apostle. This means that many of the powerful cards launched in Ixalan have a synergistic focus, relying on more of their kind to reach their full power. In a Standard as powerful as Kaladesh-Ixalan standard, tribes need to be fully supported to break through into the mainstream, with less overtly powerful mythics in a vacuum.

That said, let’s take a look at what Ixalan gave us. Did the golden treasure of Ixalan shine, or did it turn out to be bronze?

The Hits

When the world first looked at Settle the Wreckage, we all thought ‘how much does a Path to Exile have to cost to price it out of playability’? It only hits attacking creatures, and in the early-midgame, it takes an entire turn to cast? And what if your opponent plays around it? You lose four mana? The Magic collective breathed an unexcited ‘eh’, and kept an eye for new spoilers.

This wasn’t the right way of looking at it. As a four mana Path to Exile, Settle would not be remotely playable. The key to Settle’s power isn’t whether you have it, but that you may have it. By passing with four mana open in any UW Control shell previously, your opponent had to worry if you had removal, a draw spell, or a counter. Now, they have to add a wrath to that list? Settle has quickly become an auto-four of in all White Control decks, and for good reason.

Remember when Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy was spoiled? How it was viewed as one of the weakest of the Origins flip-walkers, as it had so little board impact? All it did was offer card selection, then offer a middling card-advantage engine later in the game. Remember how that turned out?

While Search for Azcanta isn’t quite the format definer Jace became, all of the same signs were there. Two mana? Check. Early card filtering? Check. Mid-late game engine? Check and check. Search has found its way into every non-Energy Blue deck, and I expect in the constant battle of one-upsmanship between Midrange decks, sooner or later Search will sneak in there too. Filtering, card draw, and mana ramp, all in one cute little two mana package.

The astute reader may notice that several of the overperformers of Ixalan have close comparisons with existing powerful cards. Vraska’s Contempt is what happens when you put Utter End and Hero’s Downfall into a blender; a smoothie of sweet, sweet value.

While no-one thought Contempt would see zero play, it was definitely undervalued at launch. It turns out that in a world of Hazoret the Fervent, Chandra, Torch of Defiance and The Scarab God, Contempt is priced to move. The exile effect is highly sought after, and the two extra life lets Midrange and Control decks catch up on a resource they would otherwise be unable to alter. Expect plenty more petrified gods in the near future.

Now this one was sneaky. The Dinosaur deck looked to be pretty Midrange, and Ferocidon is a much more aggressive card than that. So where else could it go? Ahn-Crop Crasher firmly had the Ramunap Red three drop slot covered. Perhaps the sideboard?

Starting with just a couple copies in the sideboards of World Championship Red decks, the Ferocidon was designated to punish the Whirler Virtuosos and Anointed Processions of the world. Soon, a couple of copies became a trio, and then a playset. Slowly but surely, the raptor crept into maindecks, fighting with the old guard in Crasher. Now? Ferocidon is the three drop of choice in Ramunap Red, in no small part due to it’s efficiency versus the Energy decks. The fact it so wildly swings the Tokens and Gift matchups into the Red decks’ favour is just gravy, preventing Anointer Priests from gaining a couple hundred life, and Angel of Invention from winning the game on the spot. Clever girl.

Continuing with the theme of old Standard staples getting a downgrade, meet the poorman’s Scavenging Ooze. They even share a word in their title, for heavens’ sake!

Deathgorge Scavenger fills two roles very well. First and primarily, it acts as graveyard hate that can still take a chunk out of the opponent’s face. I don’t know about you, but I haven’t killed many opponents with a Crook of Condemnation. Secondly, it acts as a semi-continuous source of life-gain, a highly valuable asset versus the various Aggro decks of the field. The best way to beat Ramunap Red is to stem the bleeding of their assault, then race them before they can find burn or a Hazoret to finish you. Enter the Scavenger, exiling pesky zombified Earthshaker Khenra’s before they can cause a nuisance, and buffing up your health in the process.

The next time they print a rare Green creature with ‘Scavenge’ in it’s name, I’m ordering twenty.

Oh, Vraska. While you didn’t need to win many games of Magic to win a place in my heart, I’m glad you did.

For those who missed my Standard Spotlight article (shame on you! Go catch up here . I compared Vraska, Relic Seeker to Sorin, Grim Nemesis. Both six drops, both dual-coloured, and both the top-end finishers in Midrange and Control shells. Given my bias towards BG, I never could have dreamed that would have been underselling her.

The key to Vraska’s success is in that second ability, and particularly the line enchantment or artifact. It turns out that with Tokens and Gift decks naturally preying on the BG midrange decks that Vraska gravitates to, she turns unwinnable matchups into fairly even ones. She even ends Tokens mirror matches before both players die of old age!

Vraska, my darling – I knew you wouldn’t disappoint.

The Misses

As I stated in the intro, Ixalan is a tribal set. Many of the new cards rely on synergy to reach their full potential – Wakening Suns’ Avatar is a casualty of this effect, as all of the good dinosaurs are in Gruul colours, and are focused on midrange beatdowns rather than ramping into gigantic finishers.

Avatar asks a lot of you. First, it asks that you be heavily white, due to it’s difficult mana requirements. Second, it asks that you ramp your mana, due to it’s hefty casting cost. Finally, it asks that you play Dinosaurs, else it wraths both players symmetrically. That is a pretty tall order!

It’s not, however, an order that can’t be filled. With Rivals, a few good Dinos and some efficient ramp could yet let this Dino have it’s day.

There are two camps of Magic players. Those who love Jace, and those who are wrong. Kidding! (Sorta).

While this is roughly the billionth Jace to see print, the quality of those Planeswalkers has wavered wildly. On the one end of the spectrum, there is the most powerful walker to exist, Jace, the Mind Sculptor. On the other, there is the world’s greatest proxy, Jace, the Living Guildpact. So where does Cunning Castaway sit? Unfortunately for Jace fans, he’s closer to his Ravnican incarnation than the end-boss of Vintage.

New Jace certainly has his merits. He draws cards, protects himself, and offers a powerful ultimate. So what’s holding him back? He’s a tempo play in a format with Whirler Virtuoso and Bristling Hydra, the two biggest roadblocks in recent Standard history.

For Jace to shine, we need efficient counter-magic and a bunch of cheap evasive threats to see print. If Mana Leak finds it’s way back into Standard, I can guarantee you that Jace will be the first to hear about it.

Another victim to the curse of lacking tribal support comes the most elegant Hellrider you’ll ever see.

Sanctum Seeker is such a payoff for a go-wide Vampire strategy. Even without the production of tokens, a one-two-three-Seeker curve immediately throws a Lightning Helix at the opponents’ head, and threatens to upgrade that into a Warleaders’ Helix on the following turn. It’s not even legendary! You can stack them!

In my eyes, Seeker is such an individually powerful card that it wouldn’t take much to push Vampires to the forefront of Standard. We already have Legion’s Landing, Adanto Vanguard, Metallic Mimic and Mavrin Fein – with just another good one drop, two drop, and BW dual-land, the Vampires are set to drain the life from victims from counter-top to Pro Tour Final. I’d keep an eye on Rivals spoilers; the moment those conditions are met, pre-order four of these, and watch as your peers scramble through their jank box for the now $15 rare.

And now for the the fanciest Outpost Siege since Sarkhan messed with Tarkir’s history.

Vance’s Blasting Cannons offers an interesting twist on the previously powerful Standard board card – it trades the option to play lands for the ability to turn into a power plant, and start throwing Lightning Bolts all over the place. The problem with this one? Chandra, Torch of Defiance. Chandra offers the same effect as the Cannons, but also incinerates Hostage Takers, ramps into Nicol Bolas, God Pharoahs, and turns all of your spells into Lava Axes.

While the Cannons are more difficult to interact with, I wouldn’t anticipate them taking Chandra’s place for as long as she’s around. That said, come next September, Chandra rotates out. Guess what will be staying?

Here’s the big one, and I really mean that – they don’t come much bigger than this!

Carnage Tyrant is an interesting case, and I think the best way to explain why it sees so little play is to look at Languish, another card lauded as format defining on its reveal.

When Languish was launched, Base-Black Midrange players were stoked. A four mana wrath hadn’t seen the light since Supreme Verdict! Tournaments began, and many Languishes were cast. And yet, they didn’t materialise at the top tables. Why? It’s very existence warped how decks were constructed. Because Languish existed, everyone played X/5 creatures. Siege Rhino, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Dragonlord Silumgar; the list goes on. All of a sudden, your premium Wrath was downgraded to a solid two and three drop killer, and you got trampled by a Crash of Rhinos. Languish became merely an okay sideboard option, rather than the be-all and end-all of Black sweepers.

Carnage Tyrant suffers the same problem – it is it’s own worst enemy. The UR Control decks of old relying on Hour of Devastation and counter-magic ceased to exist, in favour of UB and UW decks packing Bontu’s Last Reckoning, Fumigate, Settle the Wreckage, and the now ubiquitous sideboard Vizier of Many Faces.

This doesn’t mean things can’t change. Just as Languish did eventually become a format staple, so too can Carnage Tyrant; the right environment just needs to present itself. I wouldn’t count this one out yet.

Last but certainly not least, we have Broodmate Dragon’s Jurassic pal, Regisaur Alpha.

Reggie offers a lot for five mana – seven power and seven toughness, three of which with haste, over two bodies. It even continues to grant value by giving the rest of your Dinos haste! How is anyone ever beating a Reggie into Tyrant curve? In a word: Glorybringer.

Little old Reggie does do some sweet stuff, and in many other Standard formats it would be the most powerful five-drop available. Unfortunately, the Alpha joined a Standard headlined by the Dragon that could, and even has an almost strictly better version of itself available in Verdurous Gearhulk. When a sweet five drop has two contenders in its own colour combination, it’s difficult to argue it’s case.

This could change, of course, and the key is in the typeline: Dinosaur. Alongside Ripjaw Raptor and big boy Carnage, Alpha has the top-end teammates covered. If Rivals can bring us a couple of powerful two and three drop Dinos, expect a sudden uptick in Palaeontologists at your LGS.

Summary

And that’s it for Hit or Miss: Ixalan, or the set that reprinted weaker-but-still-great versions of old cards and a bunch of tribal payoffs that aren’t quite there yet. I’m eagerly anticipating Rivals spoilers’, as this time I will not be allowing a Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy wannabe to slip past me, nor will I miss an opportunity to grab $1 Hellriders. Hopefully, by reading this article, neither will you!

Were there any cards that you think I’ve missed? Any sleepers I haven’t spotted? Any would-be kings of Standard, relegated to poverty? Let me know in the comments. As always, thanks for reading, and good luck.